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Have Middlesbrough Turned A Corner?

Matthew

Updated: Jan 13

After teasing fans by controlling games and showing glimpses of brilliance, have Middlesbrough finally turned into promotion contenders?

Middlesbrough fans supporting their team
A stacked Middlesbrough support backing their team (Source: Gazette)

Supporting Middlesbrough is like being a dedicated alcoholic. You turn up every day hoping to have a good time, watch some impressive football and enjoy yourself. However, nine times out of ten the atmosphere is lacking, and the pub band in the can’t seem to find its harmony, each member on a different song sheet from the other. Then you leave, unimpressed at the expected result.


Yet, once every so often, it’s a Friday night, the crowds are a pulsing electricity of noise and that band that could hardly put any noise together is creating a cacophony of brilliance. Middlesbrough were one such Friday night before the international break. The sides struggle for goals no more as the net rippled more than pints sank by the alcoholic. The Middlesbrough crowd was injected with vitality and excitement. The fans now looking more positively on the clubs prospects of success this season. Yet, despite these positive showings, deep down, there is concern that it will all capitulate. That Middlesbrough will return to its tradition of building up expectations and aptly falling short. Ever the optimist, and ever believing in the talent in the sides ranks from striker to goalkeeper to management. It is hard not to believe that Middlesbrough has turned the corner.


In the last two fixtures, admittedly against lowly QPR and Luton Town, Carrick’s side added a net-bursting 9 goals, finally coming good on their exceptional record for chance creation so far this season. A regrettable own goal from Dijksteel and Luton Town's Clark goalscoring mean that Middlesbrough failed to keep a clean sheet across these games. However, the side did concede few clear-cut opportunities meaning that the defence appears to be in a good position too.



It would be easy to reflect on these results and get carried away. A phenomenal goalscoring return is likely to cause a rise in spirits around Teesside. However, it is important to caveat this impressive turn in form with their respective opponents. A firm grasp around the collar of the optimism energiser-bunny is needed. There will be a more complete picture of where Michael Carrick’s side are when they face plucky Oxford United armed with the potential return of talented midfield metronome Cameron Brannagan and a Blackburn Rovers that, despite a poor recent turn of form, has shown great resilience to be 9th in the league following the departure of late-bloomer Sammie Szmodics.


Football is a tumultuous beast and the Championship is the most extreme evolution. It is impossible to predict individual matches with underdogs consistently undermining the narrative of the biggest clubs in the league. However, by looking at the matrix of tracking data it is possible to claim whether Middlesbrough have blossomed or whether there remains a way to go before they are convincing promotion challengers. Now there is 15 games behind us, there is a big enough bank of data to make educated assessments on the teams standings and chances.

 

Attacking:

The red and white army has beat the opposition goalkeeper 23 times; averaging 1.5 goals per game. This is means that they are the third most prolific goal scorers behind high-flying Sunderland and Leeds United. The relative success of the goal scoring table-toppers implies that being a prolific force will be vital for success this season. In this measure, Middlesbrough are well positioned to have a good season.


However, the gluttony of goals against QPR and Luton Town has inflated their actual goalscoring numbers. It is highly unlikely that Middlesbrough are going to consistently repeat their return of nine goals in two games. Accounting for these two outliers, Middlesbrough have scored 14 goals, and recorded an average of just over 1 goal per game. This return would place Michael Carrick’s side in lowly 20th in the goalscoring standings. Yet, prior to Middlesbrough’s goalscoring fire sale across the last two games, the side was massively underperforming in front of goal. As we will go on to explain, those extraordinary nine goals against QPR and Luton Town was the dam breaking following the sides persistent hammering against its walls. The goal-filled highlights rebalancing the sides attacking performance and output.

Latte Lath celebrates a goal
Latte Lath is back in the goalscoring form (Source: MFC)

Expected goals has been talked about with such numbing frequency that it has lost all sense of meaning. Nonetheless, it remains a very important tool to understand Middlesbrough’s underlying numbers and potential future performances. To put it simply, expected goals (xG) values the opportunities a team has on the chances that it will result in a goal. These are then given a value between 0 and 1 where 1 represents a undeniable goal. These are then collated together for teams and individuals to indicate how many goals a team should have scored. Sometimes a team will outperform their xG. Sometimes a team will underperform their xG. Frequently, a team will regress to their underlying numbers over time.


Middlesbrough are one such team that has massively underperformed in comparison to their xG. After 15 games, Boro has racked up an impressive, table topping, 28 expected goals. Their closest rivals, Leeds United, recording 25.1 xG so far this season. Michael Carrick’s side’s return is far below where it should be this season as the sides inefficient finishing has meant they lost 5 goals in the first 15 games. Or that Middlesbrough should have scored an extra goal every three matches this season.


The graph below (Fig. 1) shows teams over/underperformance relative to their xG. Swansea City have had the worst return on their chances created followed by Middlesbrough. On the other side of the scale, Sunderland and Burnley have overperformed.

A graph which shows the difference between goals scored and xG in the Championship
Fig 1. Graph shows a teams goalscoring performance in comparison to their expected goals. Teams that have a negative score have struggled to score the opportunities they have created. Those above 0 have scored more chances than they were expected to and thus more clinical thus far.

Middlesbrough’s expected goals painted an even worse picture prior to the proliferation of goals against QPR and Luton Town. Michael Carrick’s side had recorded just 14 goals but, statistically, they were expected to have found the net 24.4 times. Middlesbrough were missing 10 goals across their first 13 games of the season. The question is whether Michael Carrick’s search and rescue has returned these missing goals and whether the output will match what is statistically expected.

 

Style of Play:

The odds of Michael Carrick’s side managing to gallop into goalscoring form is increased by the style of play that he has implemented at the club. Into his third season at the club, there is little surprise to how Carrick has his teams playing football. An attractive and compelling style of play which works around getting the right players with the right talents in the right areas.


Carrick is often criticised for implementing turgid football. Attrition and patience with little risk. Yet, this speaks more to the success of some managers to halt the Carrick attacking machine than the former United players tactics.


Michael Carrick holds the manager of the month trophy in front of the camera
Michael Carrick shows off his Manager of the Month award in March (Source: SkySports)

The Teessiders are content with keeping possession. They have the 5th highest possession in the league. They are content passing the ball. They have recorded the 3rd highest passes in the league. Yet, instead of it being a consequence of an inability to penetrate oppositions defences, Middlesbrough’s high possession represents one of their biggest strengths. Every player in the squad, regardless of their position, is very technically proficient and they can be trusted with the ball in dangerous situations. In turn, Middlesbrough can be patient and probe for chinks in the oppositions armour, fully aware that whoever has the ball and wherever they may be they will be able to exploit it. This means that Middlesbrough remain a consistent threat, even when it appears they are not.


There is clear attacking intent in Carrick’s style of play too. They are fourth for big chances created (24) and 2nd for shots on target per match (5.1) meaning that they are an aggressive attacking force once they find the weakness to exploit.


The table below (Fig 2) shows Championship teams average possession stats in relation to their xG. Note: Burnley, West Bromwich Albion and Plymouth Argyle have created far fewer chances in relation to their share of possession. On the other hand, Middlesbrough and Millwall are one of two sides that have created more chances in relation to their average possession in comparison to the rest of the league.

A graph showing the relationship between xG and possession in the championship
Fig 2. Shows the relationship between possession and chance creation. There are a few outliers mentioned above but the general trend sees more possession result in increased chance creation

The consistency by which Middlesbrough has been able to control games, suffocate the opposition with possession (preventing the opposition from scoring and forcing mistakes) and creating chances means that Michael Carrick’s team is likely to continue to repeat their underlying numbers and thus find better results.

 

Defence:

While Middlesbrough’s attack has received mountainous detailed attention this season, the defence has gone largely ignored. The defensive unit only receiving attention when they are criticised for individual cases: poor judgement, individual mistakes, or lapses in attention. However, it is just as important to prevent goals as it is to score your own. Having a strong resilient defence will be important if Middlesbrough want to complete their U-turn.



                On the face of it, Middlesbrough has been resolutely above average in defence. The side has conceded 17 goals this season – or 1.1 goals per game – giving them the 8th best defensive record in the league. Yet, as with the sides goalscoring, Middlesbrough has been underperforming their underlying numbers and there is room to improve.

Similar to xG, xG against records the number of goals an individual or team should have conceded based on the odds that each chance would result in a goal. Once again, Midddlesbrough’s underlying numbers are some of the best in the league. The side has recorded an xG against of 13.4, fourth lowest in the league. This means that Boro’s posts have been infiltrated four more times than expected.


The graph below (Fig. 4) shows the relationship between expected goals against and actual goals conceded. Note: Middlesbrough are comparatively sturdy in this area. However, four goals could make all the difference. Michael Carrick will be hoping to see the blue and orange lines switch by the end of the season.

A graph showing the relationship between xG against and goals conceded in the championship
Fig 4. Shows the relationship between expected goals against and goals conceded. There are a few major outliners, namely Swansea City and Luton Town, but the general trend indicates a strong relationship between the two wherein higher xG conceded results in more goals conceded.

It is clear that Boro has successfully stifled the opposition and reduced the chances they have to score. However, once they breach this system the side appear to be ill-equipped to prevent the ball from hitting the back of the net. This is reflected in the sides lowly 1.3 saves per game (23rd). This isn’t outrightly a negative sign (the goalkeepers of the top two defences in the league are also in the bottom 5 for saves per game), but Dieng’s save percentage of 57.5% (10th percentile) means that there is an issue to be addressed here.

Nonetheless, if Michael Carrick can slap his defence into attention and cut out the mistakes that are costing them then they could have a very complimentary defensive record by the end of the season.


Rivals:

If we dare to look to the lofty heights of the Championship with a killer instinct then Middlesbrough’s odds look increasingly favourable.


                The table topping Black Cats have been consistently outperforming their underlying numbers offensively and defensively and are likely to regress to their norm. Their thunderous early season form has stagnated recently resulting in three consecutive draws - two of them goalless – making up the majority of their draws this season. Further concerning for Le Bris’ side, is the nature of the sides that have pegged them back, floundering QPR and Preston and managerless Coventry taking points from them.

Regis De Bris smiles looking into the distance
Sunderland manager Regis De Bris following his appointment as manager in the summer (Source: BBC)

                Sheffield United have also impressed this season. However, they continue to outperform their underlying performance markers. Defeats to Middlesbrough and Leeds United means that there remains questions over whether Wilders’ side can overcome the bigger sides in the division. Their upcoming run looks to ask questions of them that have not yet been posed this season. How they fair may be key to knowing whether they will be the challengers we expect this season.


                Third placed Leeds United appear to be the most balanced contender. Almost precisely performing to their underlying numbers. However, there are indications that Daniel Farke’s side struggles against sturdy defences.


                Parker-ball is in full-swing at Burnley. Complaints about his style of play ring around Turf Moor as Parker prioritizes defensive security over all else. Whether he will maintain the full backing of the fans that have grown used to, and thoroughly enjoyed, the energetic volatile football produced under Vincent Kompany remains to be seen. Expect them to always be hard to beat.


                Armed with arguably the best manager in the league, WBA are pushing themselves into contention with a widely experienced but aging squad. Two wins in nine games means that they are starting to drift and need to anchor themselves if they are to remain a promotion threat.



                Tom, Cleverley, pushed Watford into the top six (I had to). Another team largely performing to their underlying numbers. However, with little margin between goals scored and conceded they appear to be a tumultuous opponent.


                Without disrespecting the clear quality of each of these teams, there appears to be potential downturns in four of the top six teams. Whether this comes into fruition remains to be seen. However, Middlesbrough has to be there to exploit any downturns if they do occur.


Below is the xG league table (Fig 5.) it shows how the table may look should teams regress to the norm (closer to what is statistically expected of them). In this table it shows Middlesbrough in a comfortable 2nd position. A lot can change in a season. There are lots of variables that will effect the league outcomes this season. So we will have to wait and see if this comes to fruition.

Standing

Team

xG

xGA

xGD

1

Leeds United

1.64

0.85

+0.79

2

Middlesbrough

1.62

1.02

+0.60

3

Sheffield United

1.42

0.97

+0.45

4

Burnley

1.30

0.98

+0.32

5

Coventry City

1.44

1.17

+0.27

6

Bristol City

1.32

1.20

+0.12

7

West Bromwich Albion

1.23

1.12

+0.11

8

Millwall

1.29

1.18

+0.11

9

Sunderland

1.28

1.18

+0.10

10

Sheffield Wednesday

1.25

1.18

+0.07

11

Cardiff City

1.35

1.28

+0.07

12

Swansea City

1.18

1.23

-0.05

13

Hull City

1.34

1.40

-0.06

14

Luton Town

1.30

1.39

-0.09

15

Derby County

1.17

1.27

-0.10

16

Queens Park Rangers

1.27

1.38

-0.11

17

Norwich City

1.19

1.31

-0.12

18

Preston North End

1.11

1.26

-0.15

19

Blackburn Rovers

1.22

1.41

-0.19

20

Watford

1.30

1.52

-0.22

21

Stoke City

1.21

1.57

-0.36

22

Portsmouth

1.15

1.54

-0.39

23

Oxford United

1.06

1.48

-0.42

24

Plymouth Argyle

1.07

1.71

-0.64

Summary:

If Michael Carrick can sow the final patches together and make the team work seamlessly then Middlesbrough could have the very best offensive and defensive performances and record in the league. This would be a sure-fire way for Middlesbrough to become a serious promotion competitor come the end of the season.


Meanwhile, the lofty heights of the Championship look attainable if Middlesbrough look after their own performances. It is extremely difficult to predict the outcome of a Championship season. However, if Middlesbrough can match their outcomes with their underlying numbers then they should be in the promotion discussion come the end of the season.

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